Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for the station. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either avoiding the market entirely or the current odds structure reflects extreme confidence in a particular outcome band not yet visible in the stated probability.

New York's June weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical data from LaGuardia indicates June highs typically range between 75°F and 85°F, though readings above 90°F occur in roughly one in five years during this month. The 2012 heat wave pushed June temperatures to 95°F at the airport, whilst cooler Junes have peaked in the low 70s. Without visibility on the specific temperature ranges offered in this market's resolution brackets, the 0% reading may reflect either an extremely narrow upper range that traders assess as unlikely, or a technical issue with how probabilities are being displayed across the platform.

The National Weather Service will publish its extended forecast for early June 2026 in late May, providing the primary catalyst for meaningful probability shifts. Traders should monitor Atlantic weather patterns through May, particularly any developing high-pressure systems or tropical activity that could influence temperature trajectories. Seasonal climate models from NOAA, typically updated monthly, offer additional context for whether June 2026 tracks toward warmer or cooler-than-average conditions for the region.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.