Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 6 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s published **Absolute Daily Min** for that date, and this market only resolves once the daily extract is finalised. On the Observatory’s climatology page, the August normal minimum for 6 August is **26.8°C**, which places the contract in a part of the year where overnight relief is limited even before local weather is considered.[15][1]

The crowd price of **0% YES** implies traders are assigning essentially no chance that the day’s low lands in the contract’s YES range, even though the baseline climate for early August is already hot and humid. Hong Kong’s August averages cluster around lows of roughly **25.7°C to 27°C** across historical climate pages, while the Observatory’s own normals point to a minimum near **26.8°C** on 6 August specifically.[2][1][13] That makes the key comparison less about whether it will feel cool and more about whether the observed minimum slips materially below the usual overnight band.

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s daily observations, any severe-weather warnings, and whether cloud cover or rain keeps temperatures elevated overnight into the morning cut-off. Reuters reported Hong Kong was hit by exceptionally heavy August rain in 2025, underscoring how quickly rainfall can distort daily minima relative to normal summer patterns.[17] The practical dependency is simple: until the Hong Kong Observatory posts the final daily extract, sportsbook-style pricing, prediction-market odds, and any outside analyst view can all diverge from the actual settled temperature bucket.[15][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.