Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633), commonly known as the CLARITY Act, passed the House with bipartisan support on 17 July 2025 but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where a competing discussion draft for the Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025 has emerged [3][4]. With the current crowd-implied probability at 38% YES, the market reflects significant uncertainty about whether the bill will overcome Senate hurdles and secure a presidential signature before the 31 December 2026 deadline [1].

Historically, comprehensive crypto market-structure bills in the US face prolonged Senate deliberation; the GENIUS Act, passed shortly before CLARITY, required months of negotiation to reconcile House and Senate versions [3]. Comparable state-level efforts, such as California’s Digital Financial Assets Law, took over a year from introduction to enactment, suggesting that federal passage within the remaining 17 months is ambitious but not impossible [1]. This 38% line sits below typical analyst consensus for bipartisan crypto bills that have already cleared the House, indicating a divergence where prediction markets are more sceptical than sportsbook-style odds on similar legislative contracts.

Traders should monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for a vote on H.R.3633 and any announcements regarding reconciliation with the RFIA draft [4]. Key catalysts include the release of a formal Senate version of the bill, statements from committee leadership on prioritising crypto legislation, and the timing of the next congressional session’s agenda [2]. A recent Morgan Lewis report notes that the CLARITY Act mandates joint SEC-CFTC rulemaking and strict disclosure requirements, details that could influence Senate resistance if industry groups lobby against the regulatory burden [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.