Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s 6 August maximum will be measured at Haneda Airport Station for settlement, and the current market is pricing a very low likelihood of an extreme reading, with the crowd-implied probability on Polymarket split across the upper-20s and low-30s rather than a runaway hot outcome. That is broadly consistent with the forecast range from AccuWeather, which shows Tokyo highs around the high-80s Fahrenheit, roughly 31–32°C, and with the market’s own ladder centred on 33°C and 34°C rather than anything materially hotter.[2][5]

Historically, Tokyo in August usually sits near 31°C for daytime highs, while broader Japan guides describe August as the hottest month and often place Tokyo’s average maximum around 30–31°C.[9][10][13] The JMA’s daily table for Tokyo on 1–2 August already shows highs of 35.6°C at Haneda on the 1st and 33.0°C on the 2nd, but the official Tokyo city station peaked at 36.5°C and 35.3°C respectively, illustrating how much the exact outcome can vary by station and day-to-day weather pattern.[1] In that context, a 0% YES price on the precise target bucket is a reflection of market scepticism about matching the eventual settled range, not evidence that the day itself cannot turn hot.[5][18]

The main catalysts are the morning evolution of the Tokyo heat profile, any late-forming convective showers, and the strength of the Pacific High over eastern Japan, which forecasters have described as a key driver of above-normal summer temperatures in 2026.[14] Traders should also watch the official JMA updates and Haneda observations through the day, since the settlement source is the station-specific daily maximum rather than a city average or forecast high.[1][4] That makes the contract sensitive to small intraday differences: a few tenths of a degree can shift the winning bucket even when the broader Tokyo weather narrative looks unchanged.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.