Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the resolution point, so the key question is whether the day’s peak temperature clears the upper end of the current June range rather than merely landing in the middle of it. Climate normals for the airport show June daily highs typically rising from about 25°C to 28°C, with highs above 33°C uncommon but not exceptional in the broader warm season.[1][5] That makes a 0% YES price notable only if the contract’s implied band is set materially above the usual late-June climate envelope, because June heat in Shanghai can still produce low-to-mid 30s Celsius under strong sunshine and weak onshore moderation.[6]

For comparison, current forecast material points to a warmer, more unsettled setup rather than a locked-in cool day. AccuWeather has 22 June at Shanghai Pudong International Airport around 26°C/24°C with an afternoon thunderstorm risk and heavy rain late, while the NOAA time-series page shows intraday highs progressing through the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit, consistent with a middling-to-warm afternoon rather than an extreme spike.[2][3] Against that backdrop, prediction-market pricing at 0% YES is far lower than the weather guidance would usually justify if the contract pays for a broad Celsius interval, so the main cross-check is whether sportsbook-style lines and the market’s own strike bands are centred above the likely observed peak. The practical catalysts are the daytime convective forecast, any shift in cloud cover or rainfall timing, and the final observed maximum at the airport station before the settlement window closes.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.