Colombia Presidential Election

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia goes to the polls on 31 May, with a potential run-off on 21 June if no candidate clears 50% of valid votes in the first round. The market is still priced at 0% YES, which sits well below the broad reporting consensus that the race is live rather than foregone. Recent polling cited by Justice for Colombia and tracked by AS/COA has Iván Cepeda leading the first round, with Abelardo de la Espriella and Sergio Fajardo trailing, but the same polling also points to a second round being necessary unless a candidate wins outright or by the constitutional margin. That makes the contract more about final certification than first-round popularity.

For context, Colombia’s presidential races often turn between rounds as alliances shift, and the incumbent is constitutionally barred from re-election, so the contest is open. Polling volatility matters more than in systems with a single decisive ballot, because a candidate can lead the first round and still face a much tighter runoff. The current 0% implied probability therefore looks disconnected from both analyst framing and the practical election calendar: the main uncertainty is not whether there will be a winner, but which name will emerge after the second round if needed.

Traders should watch the final campaign polling, any formal coalition deals between the first and second rounds, and turnout in key urban and regional blocs. The ballot order is fixed by registration, but late withdrawals, endorsements and vice-presidential alignments can still reshape runoff dynamics. AS/COA’s tracker and reporting around the first-round vote remain useful for comparing polling swings, while the market itself will ultimately settle on the official certified result, including any delayed runoff outcome within the June window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Colombia Presidential Election on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.