Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 7 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either absent from this contract or expect resolution data to be unavailable, rather than forecasting an implausibly cold day. June in Seoul typically sees daytime highs between 25–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early summer heat waves. The settlement window closes at midday on the event date, creating a practical constraint: only temperatures recorded before noon will count toward resolution, which may exclude afternoon highs that often represent the day's maximum.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures in early June ranged from 22°C to 32°C, with most years clustering between 26–29°C. The 0% probability across all temperature bands reflects either thin liquidity or uncertainty about data availability rather than meteorological consensus. No recent weather forecasts or climate alerts for that specific date exist yet; traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration updates from late May 2026 and cross-reference Wunderground's historical data feed to confirm it captures Incheon readings consistently. The contract's reliance on a single weather station and noon cutoff distinguishes it from broader Seoul temperature markets that might use multiple sources or full-day measurements.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.