Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Market context

Incheon International Airport’s top temperature on 22 June 2026 will be read against a market that is currently pricing a **0% YES** outcome, which is starkly at odds with the venue’s own contract page showing traders clustering around the mid-to-high 20s Celsius. Polymarket’s live distribution has the main weight on **26°C** and **27°C**, with **25°C** the next most likely outcome, and its commentary points to Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance favouring a **26–28°C** daytime high in Seoul[1]. That makes the present crowd-implied zero look more like an illiquid or stale signal than a settled view, especially because the contract resolves to the highest temperature at Incheon Intl Airport Station rather than a citywide average.

Seasonally, late June in Seoul is already warm enough that outcomes in the mid-20s are routine, with WeatherSpark putting average daily highs in June around **77–81°F** and noting that highs rarely fall below **68°F** or exceed **87°F**[3]. Recent Korean heat reports also matter for framing tail risk: South Korea has already logged record-setting June heat in recent years, including Seoul touching **35.6°C** on a day described as the hottest June reading there since 1958, while the broader country has seen its hottest June conditions in over half a century[2][9]. Even so, that kind of spike is an outlier rather than the base case, which helps explain why analyst-style expectation and weather-model guidance sit well above the market’s current 0% YES reading on the contract’s narrow range outcomes[1].

For traders, the main catalysts are the near-term KMA updates, the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon pattern, and whether rainfall or cloud cover suppresses the afternoon peak at the airport. A dry, hot central-Korea setup would support the higher bands, while a shift to showers would lower the ceiling quickly; recent reporting has noted that no rainfall was forecast for the central region in one heat episode, underscoring how fast the range can move when precipitation stays absent[2]. Because the settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for Incheon, the practical watchpoint is the final recorded maximum before the day’s data cut-off, not just the headline Seoul forecast[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.