Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, which archives daily temperature extremes for the airport's official meteorological station. Traders should note that Le Bourget records temperatures in a standardised environment, making the data consistent year-on-year, though the specific time of peak temperature can vary considerably depending on cloud cover, wind patterns, and urban heat effects across the Île-de-France region.

Paris's early June climate typically produces highs between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. The 0% crowd probability currently implied across prediction markets suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Historical June data from Le Bourget shows that temperatures exceeding 28°C occur in roughly one year per decade during this period, whilst readings below 18°C are similarly rare. This distribution should anchor expectations: most outcomes cluster tightly around the seasonal norm, making extreme ranges statistically improbable.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as June approaches. Anomalous heat patterns driven by Atlantic pressure systems or Saharan air masses can shift probabilities substantially, though such events typically signal themselves 7–10 days in advance. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 6 June, requiring traders to account for any overnight temperature swings that might affect the daily maximum recorded by the station.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.