Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, capturing the peak daily temperature in Fahrenheit across all hours of that date. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or are avoiding the market entirely due to its distance from the present date.

New York City's June weather patterns show considerable variability. Historical data from LaGuardia indicates June highs typically range between 75°F and 85°F, though temperatures occasionally exceed 90°F during heat waves. The 2012 heat dome pushed June temperatures above 95°F in the region, whilst cooler Junes have seen highs remain in the low 70s. This seasonal range means multiple outcome bands likely carry non-trivial probabilities, yet the current crowd assessment suggests minimal conviction across all temperature thresholds. Cross-platform comparison data remains sparse given the market's forward-looking nature and limited trader participation.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasting updates as June 2026 approaches. The National Weather Service typically releases 8–14 day outlooks roughly two weeks prior to the settlement date, providing the first substantive guidance on whether anomalous heat or cooler conditions are probable. Long-range climate patterns, including Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and jet-stream positioning in early June, will influence whether the outcome clusters toward historical norms or extremes. Current market inactivity may reflect the difficulty in pricing events so far forward without actionable meteorological signals.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.