Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 16 August 2026, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be reached, though this reflects the market's structure rather than confidence that no temperature will be recorded. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning the resolution window captures the full diurnal cycle through early morning of 17 August.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. Between 2010 and 2023, the highest daily temperatures on 16 August ranged from 73°F to 86°F, with a median around 80°F. The 2012 reading of 86°F represents the warmest 16 August in that period, whilst cooler years saw highs near 73–75°F. This 13-degree range illustrates why the market's resolution bands matter substantially; traders must assess whether 2026 will track toward historical extremes or cluster near typical values. Recent decades show no clear trend toward systematically hotter or cooler outcomes on this specific date.

The National Weather Service and Weather Underground forecasts for mid-August 2026 remain unavailable until late July, making near-term catalyst identification limited. Traders should monitor Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-atmospheric patterns in early August, as tropical systems or heat domes can shift New York temperatures significantly. The divergence between 0% implied probability and historical temperature ranges suggests the market may be pricing extreme uncertainty about the specific temperature bands offered rather than dismissing the event's occurrence.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.