Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 79% |
| Game 1 Winner | 70% |
| Game 2 Winner | 70% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 57% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 56% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 56% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 53% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 52% |
| Any Player Rampage | 51% |
| Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 42% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 35% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 35% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% |
| Any Player Rampage | 26% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 79% YES probability for Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Elimination Round. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Spirit and Team Resilience in the The International Elimination Round, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
This page reviews Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Elimination Round across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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