Highest temperature in London on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, measured in Celsius across all daylight and evening hours.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, though heat waves can push readings into the upper 20s or low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting price discovery or treating this as a placeholder until nearer the date. Historical June records at City Airport show a maximum of 32.3°C (set in 2022), indicating that whilst extreme heat is possible, it remains uncommon. Comparable early-summer markets on UK weather have generally clustered around 20–26°C ranges when trading opens, with significant repricing only after late-May forecasts emerge.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's extended outlook in late May 2026, particularly any alerts for high-pressure systems or continental air masses that could drive temperatures upward. Seasonal patterns matter: June heat waves in the UK often correlate with Atlantic blocking patterns that develop in the preceding weeks. The current 0% reading likely reflects the market's nascent state rather than genuine consensus that temperatures will fall outside all listed ranges. Cross-platform comparison data remains sparse this far ahead, though historical precedent suggests meaningful divergence between early-market odds and settlement-week consensus is typical for weather contracts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.