Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 6 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory's publication schedule for the absolute daily maximum reading in degrees Celsius to one decimal place.

June in Hong Kong typically sees temperatures between 28°C and 33°C, with occasional peaks above 34°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that early June maxima rarely exceed 35°C, though the 2015 heat wave pushed readings to 36.1°C in early June. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in a narrow range—likely 28–32°C—reflecting typical seasonal patterns rather than exceptional heat conditions. This contrasts with late May and July, when Hong Kong regularly records temperatures above 33°C.

Traders should monitor the South China Sea monsoon patterns and any tropical cyclone activity in late May, both of which influence early June temperatures. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts approximately ten days in advance; their mid-May outlook will provide the first reliable signal of whether atmospheric conditions favour above-average or below-average heat. Recent years show increasing frequency of early-season heat, though 2024 and 2025 data will be the most relevant comparable cases once finalised.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.