Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport is still in its peak-summer heat season, and the contract resolves off the day’s **highest recorded temperature** at that station rather than the citywide forecast. With the market currently pricing **0% YES**, the crowd is effectively saying the observed maximum will land outside the listed range, even though independent weather guides still describe August in Chongqing as hot, humid and regularly above the low-30s Celsius, with daily highs around 34°C and occasional surges into the high 30s or low 40s. [2][5][7][9][12]

Historical and comparable readings argue against treating a zero-implied price as a strong signal of impossibility. Multiple climate references put August at or near Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around 32-34°C and peak values that can reach 39-43°C in extreme spells; a forecast-style source for 4 August also showed a high near 37°C, while another 2026 outlook for nearby Chongqing locations suggested low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit, which would still map to the contract’s upper temperature bands. [2][4][5][8][10][11][15] By contrast, the market’s 0% YES implies traders see the relevant airport reading as materially less likely than that broad regional heat profile would suggest, so the spread between market pricing and climatology is notable. [2][5][7]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual airport observations and any late-shifting convection, cloud cover or rain bands, because brief precipitation can cap the daytime maximum even when the broader forecast is hot. Wunderground’s daily-history page for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport is the resolution source, so traders should watch the station’s hourly progression rather than generic city forecasts, which can diverge from airport conditions. Short-range forecasts for 4 August also called for patchy rain and a high around 37°C, underscoring how a single thunderstorm or cloudier interval could pull the final maximum down from the more aggressive summer-consensus range. [2][10][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.