Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s maximum temperature on 4 August will be set by the highest reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so the key issue is whether the airport reaches the mid-30s Celsius before afternoon rain or cloud cover limits the peak. The live market is pricing a much cooler outcome than the current forecast stack: one Polymarket view has 34°C as the leading bucket at 41%, with 35°C at 31%, while the crowd-implied probability for a **YES** on this contract is only 0%, which suggests the contract is currently being treated as mispriced or as a differently structured range market rather than a straightforward single-number call.[15]

That low market price sits awkwardly against the surrounding climatology. Chengdu’s August weather is typically hot, humid and prone to short, scattered showers, with long-run guides putting daytime highs around 30–32°C and some August days reaching 32°C or above; one historical table for 4 August shows 32.1°C as a comparable reading.[3][7][18] Short-range forecasts for 4 August cluster around 31–32°C with patchy rain or scattered showers, but some larger forecast sites still show 34–35°C highs for the day, leaving room for a late-afternoon push if convection is delayed.[1][2][11][17]

Traders should watch the timing of any thunderstorm or rain band over Chengdu, because even modest cloud cover can pin the airport high several degrees below the seasonal norm, while a clear window after noon can still lift the day’s maximum into the mid-30s. The contract also depends on how Wunderground logs the day’s final airport observation, so revisions made before the first datapoint for the following day may matter, but later adjustments will not.[15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.