Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature is being measured at Gimhae International Airport, and the current crowd-implied price of **0% YES** looks at odds with the broader weather setup: forecasts for Busan on 6 August cluster around the low 30s Celsius, with nearby products showing roughly 31°C/26°C for the day and high humidity.[1][6][11][12] On market structure alone, that leaves very little room for a “high” outcome unless the airport reading materially outperforms city forecasts, which is common in isolated afternoon spikes but not enough, by itself, to justify a non-zero line when the contract’s settlement threshold is a specific Celsius range tied to the day’s maximum.

Historical context points to Busan having enough summer heat to clear the upper-20s and low-30s routinely, while rare extremes can go much higher. Busan’s August climatology sits around 29–31°C at the top end in several long-run datasets, and the city’s record heat has been far above that: 38.8°C was reported in 2016, the highest since modern observations began in 1904.[3][14][15] South Korea’s broader heat pattern also remains relevant, with 42.5°C recorded elsewhere in the south-east during a recent heat episode, underscoring how quickly regional heat can intensify when hot air masses build over the peninsula.[2][3] Compared with that backdrop, today’s market is less about whether Busan can be hot, and more about whether it can overshoot the forecast band by enough to land in a higher settlement bucket.

The main catalyst is the local hourly temperature path through the afternoon, when Busan typically peaks and when the airport station is most likely to set the day’s high; beyond that, traders should watch for any late forecast updates from weather providers if the synoptic pattern shifts. The cross-platform gap is notable: sportsbook-style weather pricing is effectively absent here, prediction-market pricing is at zero, and the analyst/forecast consensus sits around the low 30s rather than anything exceptional, so the biggest divergence is between the market’s hard zero and the meteorological forecasts that still allow a normal summer high.[1][10][12][13] Because settlement uses the Wunderground history page for Gimhae Intl Airport Station, the key dependency is not citywide heat headlines but the station’s final recorded maximum for the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.