Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Capital International Airport’s afternoon high on 4 August is the settlement variable, and the current crowd price of **0% YES** implies the market is treating the contract as effectively unpriced rather than merely bearish. That sits well below the broad run of public forecasts, which cluster around a hot but not extreme day: AccuWeather’s August outlook puts Beijing daily highs in the **79°F to 90°F** range, while other forecasts for 4 August centre on about **31°C to 36°C** with rain or thunderstorms possible.[1][3][4][13][17]

Historically, Beijing in August usually sits in the low 30s Celsius at the daytime peak, with humidity and convective showers often capping the upside rather than creating sustained extreme heat.[6][12][15] That matters because this market resolves to the **highest recorded temperature at the airport station**, so the relevant question is not the daily mean but whether sunshine before cloud build-up can push the reading into the upper-30s range. The broad forecast consensus is materially hotter than the prediction market’s current implied probability, and there is no obvious sportsbook-style line here to anchor the trade, so the comparison is mainly between forecast tools and the exchange price rather than between rival betting venues.[2][3][10][11]

The main catalysts are the day’s evolving weather sequence: early-morning clarity, timing of cloud development, and whether afternoon rain or thunderstorms arrive before the daily peak is logged. Several forecast sources flag precipitation risk around 4 August, and Wunderground’s settlement rule means the final number depends on the airport station’s published daily high, not citywide conditions elsewhere in Beijing.[2][11][14] Any late revision to the station record before the next day’s first datapoint can still matter for settlement, so traders will be watching the live observation trail rather than just a static forecast.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.