Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling and Andre Ilagan are scheduled to compete in a professional tennis match in Tyler on 6 June 2026 at 12:30PM ET, with the market settling by 13 June 2026 at 16:30 UTC. The 0% implied probability on the YES side (Poling victory) reflects either extremely limited liquidity, a data-entry anomaly, or genuine consensus that Ilagan is heavily favoured. Cross-platform comparison is essential here: standard sportsbooks typically require substantially more volume before pricing matches at such extremes, and the absence of any meaningful backing for Poling suggests either incomplete market information or a settlement-rule technicality driving the pricing.

Poling and Ilagan operate at the lower tiers of professional tennis, where head-to-head records and recent form carry outsized weight. Comparable ATP Challenger and ITF matches involving players of this ranking band historically show that 0% probabilities are rare outside of walkovers or injury withdrawals announced in advance. The current pricing likely reflects either a known injury to Poling, a substantial ranking or recent-performance gap, or simply minimal trading activity that has left the market unbalanced.

Traders should monitor official ATP and ITF draw confirmations, injury reports, and any schedule changes through early June. The settlement window's 7-day grace period means delays beyond 13 June without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent tournament schedules for Tyler-area events are typically published 2–3 weeks prior; absence of official confirmation by late May would signal potential cancellation risk.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.