Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Raphael Collignon’s meeting with Juan Manuel Cerúndolo at Eastbourne sits in a market that is already pricing in a very low chance of a straightforward result, with the contract showing **0% YES** while the tournament is still in play. That leaves a clear gap between the crowd view and the binary match outcome, especially in a week where Eastbourne is running on a tight grass-court schedule and the men’s event is listed by the ATP as Day 3 on Monday with play starting at 11:00 local time.[4][3]

Historically, markets like this tend to be most sensitive to the difference between *scheduled* and *completed* matches rather than to pre-match win probability alone. Eastbourne is a short grass-court event with a compressed draw and weather exposure, so comparable contracts often trade at an extreme discount when there is any doubt about whether the specific match will be played, completed, or pushed outside the seven-day settlement window.[3][4] The practical read is that a 0% crowd price is usually less about one player being viewed as helpless and more about the market weighting cancellation, delay, or non-completion risk heavily.

For traders, the main catalysts are the official order of play, any late draw changes, and whether the match is actually called onto court on the ATP schedule.[4] Tournament-wide updates from the LTA and WTA confirm Eastbourne is running through 29 June, but the men’s side is scheduled within a narrow window, so any postponement caused by rain or backlog would matter immediately for settlement.[2][3] In cross-platform terms, the key comparison is between sportsbook-style match pricing, which typically reflects the on-court winner, and a prediction contract that also assigns value to operational risk; that is where divergence is usually widest in a grass-week event like this.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.