GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly launched a model explicitly named GPT-6, and the relevant question for this contract is whether a **general-public release** happens before 31 December 2025, not whether an internal build, private beta, or successor model appears. By the market’s own rules, only a clearly announced public rollout would count, so any closed preview would still leave the contract on No.

The current 0% crowd-implied probability stands in sharp contrast to the broader chatter that has surrounded OpenAI’s next numbered model. Comparable cases show why traders often discount early hype: a model widely expected to be GPT-6 reportedly shipped on 23 April 2026 as **GPT-5.5** instead, which undercuts assumptions that a successor must arrive on the most rumoured timetable.[1][14] Some commentators still place GPT-6 in 2026, but that is already outside this market’s settlement window and does not support a Yes here.[2][6][15] In other words, the long-dated consensus is about a later launch, while this contract requires a 2025 release that current public reporting does not substantiate.

For catalysts, the key watchpoints are OpenAI’s own product announcements, model-release notes, and any shift from private testing to a public signup or API launch.[9][10] Recent coverage has suggested traders in other venues were pricing a later 2026 window, with one report citing Polymarket around 77% for a September release and similar odds on another market, which is useful mainly as a cross-check that the timing debate has moved well beyond 2025.[11] Unless OpenAI unexpectedly fast-tracks a publicly accessible GPT-6 and names it as such before year-end, this contract remains structurally aligned with No.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.