"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paramount Pictures is releasing the sixth instalment of the Scary Movie franchise on 6 June 2026, with opening weekend box office performance to be measured across the 5–7 June period. The 0% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty around whether the film will meet minimum threshold performance, though the franchise has demonstrated inconsistent commercial returns across its lifecycle. The original 2000 film grossed $42 million domestically in its opening weekend, whilst subsequent entries showed declining trajectories, with Scary Movie 5 (2013) opening to just $15.1 million before the franchise entered a seven-year hiatus.

Comparable horror-comedy releases from 2024–2025 provide mixed signals for positioning. Happy Death Day (2017) opened to $26.5 million, whilst Freaky (2020) managed $10.1 million in a pandemic-affected market. The franchise's extended dormancy and shifting audience demographics present material headwinds, though horror properties have shown resilience in recent theatrical windows. Sportsbooks have not yet published opening-weekend lines, and mainstream analyst consensus remains sparse given the 18-month lead time to release.

Traders should monitor casting announcements and marketing spend intensity through early 2026, as franchise revivals typically depend on recognisable talent attachment and studio promotional commitment. Paramount's broader slate decisions—particularly whether to position Scary Movie as a tentpole or mid-tier release—will signal internal confidence. Competition from other June releases and streaming availability windows closer to release will materially affect opening-weekend capture rates.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.