Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration’s lower-bracket quarter-final against Mentality Monster in the Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier is live, but the market is still pricing a surprisingly narrow path for the Filipino side, with the crowd implied at only 10% YES despite Strafe’s user poll showing 81.3% backing Execration and 18.7% for Mentality Monster.[2][1] That gap matters because prediction markets often move less on fan sentiment than on verified bracket position, team form and whether the match is actually completed, especially in knockout qualifiers where delays or technical issues can force a 50-50 settlement if no winner is recorded within the allowed window.[2]

The historical frame is thin: Scores24 notes there is no head-to-head record between Mentality Monster and Execration, so traders are leaning on recent form rather than prior meetings.[3] Strafe lists Execration as having won two of their last five matches and Mentality Monster three of five, which is not a large enough split to justify a dominant price on fundamentals alone.[2] That helps explain why the market can sit well below the public poll; in a BO3 lower-bracket match, variance is high, and a single off-map or draft edge can flip the result quickly.

The main catalysts are operational rather than structural: confirmation that the series is underway, whether it stays on schedule, and whether the bracket advances cleanly to a completed result before the settlement deadline.[1][2] Hawk.live shows the fixture as active, while Strafe places the match at 2:00 AM and identifies it as a lower-bracket quarter-final, so any pause, remake, or revised start time is relevant for traders watching whether the contract resolves to a team win or falls back to the market’s tie/cancel rule.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.