Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MOUZ and Yellow Submarine face off in the Upper Bracket round 1 of The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs for Dota 2, scheduled to begin at 4:00 AM ET on 22 June. The market currently implies a 0% chance of MOUZ winning, a stark divergence from their recent head-to-head dominance where MOUZ secured a 2-0 victory in October 2025 during FISSURE Universe Episode 7[1].

Historical precedents for such extreme probability shifts in esports qualifiers often signal either a catastrophic roster collapse or a severe mispricing by the market rather than a genuine 100% win probability for the opponent. While Yellow Submarine has claimed two 2-1 victories against MOUZ in mid-2025 and early 2026[2], the current 0% line contradicts the competitive balance shown in those matches, suggesting a potential anomaly in the odds-comparison landscape rather than a settled fact.

Traders should monitor official team announcements regarding player availability and any schedule changes before the match window closes on 22 June 2026. Liquipedia notes Yellow Submarine as a Russian team formed for The International 2015 qualifiers, but recent roster stability remains the primary catalyst for this contract’s settlement[6]. Any delay beyond seven days or cancellation would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, making real-time verification of the match status essential for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.