What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is the asset whose end-of-day price on 31 July will determine settlement, and the current crowd-implied chance of a **YES** outcome is 0%, which makes this contract look heavily discounted relative to broader price expectations. By contrast, a recent Polymarket pricing page showed traders clustering around the **$64,000-$66,000** and **$62,000-$64,000** ranges for the same date, while Robinhood’s range market also listed the mid-$64,000 bands among the active outcomes[8][6]. That leaves a noticeable gap between this contract’s zero bid and the broader market’s view that Bitcoin remains more likely to finish in the mid-$60,000s than in the extreme tails.

Comparable July forecasts have mostly centred on a wide band rather than a single point, with machine-generated estimates spanning roughly **$53,000 to $66,500** depending on model assumptions[1][2]. Yahoo Finance’s late-July analysis also framed Bitcoin as trading between **$56,000 and $62,000** into the Federal Reserve meeting, with upside only if price reclaimed the low-$60,000s and downside reopening below support around **$56,200**[7]. That makes the analyst consensus more cautious than the range-implied prediction markets, but still far from a view that this contract should be priced as impossible.

For traders, the main catalysts are the late-month macro calendar and any move through key technical levels. The Yahoo analysis singled out the Fed meeting as a near-term dependency, with resistance around **$62,500-$63,800** and a break above **$63,800** needed to improve the bullish case[7]. Any ETF-flow headlines, regulatory announcements, or sharp spot moves in the final session would matter disproportionately because this market resolves on the closing price window rather than an intraday touch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.