What price will Bitcoin hit on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 11 August 2026 will be determined by spot and futures markets across major exchanges including Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance. The settlement window closes on 12 August at 04:00 UTC, capturing a single calendar day's trading range. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price threshold being missed or insufficient liquidity in this particular contract variant.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's daily price swings typically range 3–8% under normal volatility conditions, though tail events have produced 15%+ moves. The August 2021 correction saw a 20% drawdown over three weeks; the March 2020 pandemic crash delivered a 50% decline in days. Single-day moves exceeding 10% occur roughly 5–10 times annually, concentrated around Federal Reserve announcements, major exchange incidents, or macroeconomic shocks. Current implied probability at zero suggests the market has priced in either an extremely narrow target band or structural disinterest in this particular strike level.

Traders should monitor the US inflation data release (typically mid-month), any statements from the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite. Bitcoin's correlation with equity indices has strengthened since 2023; S&P 500 volatility on 11 August would likely drive crypto positioning. Exchange-traded fund flows, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in the US, can amplify intraday moves. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies occasionally trigger sharp repricing, though the settlement window's specificity makes prediction markets less liquid than perpetual futures contracts tracking the same underlying asset.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.