When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI has yet to confirm a GPT-5.6 launch, but the market is trading against a flurry of leak-driven claims that it could arrive by 25 June, well inside the settlement window. A recent Yahoo Tech report says users have been told “next Thursday is the planned launch date”, while another bulletin from AI Weekly says GPT-5.6 is “expected late June” and that prediction-market pricing has clustered around the low-to-mid 80s in similar windows.[7][2]

The 0% crowd-implied price stands in sharp contrast to that reported chatter, and it also diverges from the kind of pre-launch momentum seen on earlier GPT-5.x updates, where model cadence compressed to roughly six weeks between major releases.[2] That matters because if OpenAI has been iterating on a short release cycle, traders will tend to treat silence less as evidence of delay and more as a sign that a launch is still being staged behind the scenes. By comparison, Kalshi’s contract wording is broad enough to count a public release of GPT-5.6 or anything higher before 30 June, which makes a last-minute naming choice relevant as well as the exact ship date.[3]

The main catalysts are any official OpenAI announcement, a public model listing, or a visible change in product access rules in ChatGPT or related tooling. The market description also means task-specific variants and some bridge models can qualify, so traders should watch not only for a flagship release but for codename-to-product mapping, subscription-tier availability, and whether OpenAI slips the launch into a higher-cost tier first.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews When will GPT-5.6 be released? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.