# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a certain number of views within its opening 24 hours. The prediction market currently prices a 62% probability on the affirmative outcome, suggesting traders expect the video to exceed a specific view threshold by the settlement deadline of 14 June 2026.

MrBeast has established a consistent track record of generating substantial first-day viewership. His recent uploads regularly exceed 50 million views within 24 hours, with several surpassing 100 million. The channel's algorithmic advantage—driven by YouTube's recommendation system favouring established creators with high engagement—means his videos typically accumulate views at a faster rate than the platform median. Historical performance suggests that barring technical issues or unusual scheduling gaps, the creator's output maintains predictable velocity in early viewing windows. The 62% implied probability reflects confidence in continued performance within established parameters, though the exact bracket threshold remains critical to resolution.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule and any announcements regarding content delays or format changes. Recent reports indicate the creator has maintained a consistent posting cadence, though special projects or collaborations occasionally alter expected timelines. YouTube's algorithm adjustments and broader platform engagement trends could affect initial distribution, particularly if the video launches during off-peak hours or competes with major cultural events. The settlement window extends through mid-June, creating a defined window for the next upload to occur; any extended content drought would trigger resolution at the lowest bracket automatically.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.