Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Islamic Republic of Iran's governing structures—centred on the Supreme Leader's office, the Guardian Council, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under clerical command—would need to be dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different system by 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The 2% implied probability reflects the crowd's assessment that such a transition is extraordinarily unlikely within an 18-month window, despite persistent domestic discontent and economic strain.

Historical precedent suggests regime collapse typically requires either external military intervention or a convergence of internal fractures that take years to materialise. The 1979 revolution itself unfolded over months of escalating unrest; the 1989 Soviet collapse involved decades of systemic decay before rapid dissolution. Iran's security apparatus remains cohesive and has successfully contained previous protest movements, including the 2019–2020 demonstrations and the 2022–2023 unrest following Mahsa Amini's death. No comparable prediction market or sportsbook currently offers explicit odds on Iranian regime change by mid-2026, though broader geopolitical volatility indices reflect elevated uncertainty around Iran-related events.

Traders monitoring this contract should track developments in three areas: escalation of US–Iran tensions (particularly around nuclear negotiations or sanctions), signs of fracture within the IRGC or clerical hierarchy, and sustained mass mobilisation exceeding 2022 levels. Recent reporting from Reuters and AFP indicates economic hardship continues, but institutional control remains intact. Unless a sudden external shock or unprecedented internal schism emerges, the 2% probability likely reflects rational scepticism about regime dissolution within such a compressed timeframe.

Methodology

We track Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.