Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with Weather Underground's Daily Observations table serving as the authoritative source rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full calendar day's temperature record from the airport's official monitoring station.

Tokyo's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or scepticism about extreme heat materialising. Comparable August conditions at Haneda show that temperatures exceeding 38°C occur roughly once per decade; the 2010 heat wave pushed readings to 39.5°C, whilst more recent Augusts (2019–2023) typically peaked between 33–35°C. This distribution implies the market's current odds reflect baseline expectations for a moderately warm but not exceptional summer day.

Japan's Meteorological Agency issues seasonal forecasts in early summer; their July 2026 outlook will be the primary catalyst for market movement, particularly if they signal above-normal temperatures or an active Pacific high-pressure system. Real-time monitoring begins in late July, when 10-day forecasts become more reliable. Any significant tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August could suppress temperatures, whilst persistent continental high pressure would elevate them. Traders should monitor JMA advisories and Haneda's historical daily records from comparable years to calibrate position sizing against the current consensus.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.