Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess seasonal norms and any anomalous weather patterns expected in late May across the Yangtze River Delta region.

Shanghai's late-May climate typically ranges between 25–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early heat waves. Historical records from the past decade show that temperatures exceeding 35°C on this specific date remain uncommon but not unprecedented; the city experienced a 36.1°C reading on 25 May 2013. The 0% crowd probability currently implied across prediction markets suggests either extreme confidence in moderate conditions or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. This divergence from seasonal baseline expectations warrants scrutiny, particularly given that comparable weather-derivative markets on major Asian cities typically price late-May highs with non-negligible tail-risk premiums.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the fortnight preceding 25 May, which will provide the most reliable guidance on whether subtropical high-pressure systems are positioned to drive anomalous heat into the region. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked through the Oceanic Niño Index, influence East Asian summer onset patterns and could shift May temperatures materially. Recent reporting from the CMA indicates neutral conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer, though this assessment remains subject to revision as spring progresses.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.