Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground historical data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular contract variant.

June temperatures in Shanghai typically range between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows that mid-June maxima rarely exceed 37°C, though the 2022 and 2023 summer seasons brought sustained heat events that pushed readings into the high 30s. The 0% probability reading appears misaligned with seasonal norms unless traders have concentrated positions in higher temperature brackets, leaving lower ranges unpriced. Comparable weather markets on other platforms show more distributed probability across the 28–32°C and 32–36°C ranges for this period.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern summer can shift regional patterns; current Pacific sea-surface temperatures favour warmer-than-average conditions across East Asia. Any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June could introduce volatility, though such systems rarely peak in intensity over Shanghai itself. Real-time satellite imagery and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns in the week preceding 13 June will offer the most actionable signals for traders adjusting positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.