Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur’s daytime heat is usually enough to keep this contract well inside the low-30s Celsius, and the current market pricing at 0% YES implies traders see almost no chance of an extreme outlier on the Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport reading. Seasonal guides for August commonly put Kuala Lumpur around 23–32°C or 23–33°C, while live forecasts from several providers cluster near the same band, with highs around 31–34°C and warm, humid nights rather than any signal of exceptional heat.[17][18][19][1][5][11]

That historical framing matters because the settlement is based on the *highest* temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport on the day, not a citywide average or an evening low. In practice, the main risk to a higher print is a brief afternoon surge in sunshine before cloud and showers build; current hourly and day-ahead forecasts show mostly cloudy to mixed-cloud conditions, with rain chances appearing later in the day and temperature peaks around 32–34°C, which is consistent with broad consensus rather than a breakout scenario.[6][8][9][14] The cross-platform picture is also notable: prediction-market odds are essentially pricing a no-surge outcome, while consumer forecast services and the UK Met Office are converging on a standard August range rather than anything that would justify a materially higher implied probability.[2][4][11]

For traders, the key catalysts are the intra-day forecast revisions, radar updates, and whether thunderstorms develop early enough to cap heating before the daily maximum is set. AccuWeather and The Weather Channel both show warm but unsettled conditions, with rain chances and cloud cover likely to matter more than wind, so the contract is most sensitive to any late-morning reduction in cloud or delay in shower activity.[5][6][16] Because the source is Wunderground’s airport station history page, the decisive move will be the station’s recorded peak rather than broader Kuala Lumpur weather sentiment, making official observational updates more important than headline city forecasts.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.