Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

Hong Kong's highest daily temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though the actual temperature reading may not be finalised until the Observatory publishes its official records, which typically occurs within days of observation. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or an expectation that data will not be available by the deadline.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28°C and 34°C for daily highs, with extremes reaching 36°C during particularly warm years. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent heat during early summer, though the onset of the southwest monsoon can introduce variability. Comparing this to recent June performance: in 2023, Hong Kong recorded a maximum of 33.1°C on 13 June itself, providing a direct benchmark for typical conditions on this specific date.

The primary catalyst affecting temperature outcomes will be monsoon positioning and any tropical cyclone activity in the region during early June. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts approximately ten days ahead, which traders should monitor for shifts in wind patterns or moisture influx. Recent seasonal outlooks from the Observatory's climate division, available through their official website, indicate whether June 2026 is tracking toward above or below historical norms. Any significant weather system approaching the South China Sea in early June would materially alter expectations for peak daily temperatures.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.