Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s peak heat on 20 July 2026 is being priced as a certainty to hit 38°C, with the Polymarket contract assigning a 100% probability to that specific range while the “YES” outcome for any lower temperature sits at 0% [1]. This stark divergence between the crowd-implied 0% for lower ranges and the 100% frontrunner for 38°C creates a clear cross-platform odds comparison, as sportsbooks typically offer broader bands for extreme heat events rather than pinpointing a single degree.

Historical data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport shows that late July frequently produces temperatures between 35°C and 39°C, with 38°C appearing in multiple recent years as a common peak during the monsoon season. The current market pricing aligns closely with these comparable cases, suggesting traders are treating the 38°C outcome as the statistical mode rather than an outlier, which explains the near-total consensus against lower ranges.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history feed for the Chengdu Shuangliu station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded temperature for that day [1]. No immediate weather announcements or schedule dependencies are expected to alter the forecast, given that the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, leaving only the real-time temperature log as the definitive catalyst for resolution.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.