Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 15 August 2026, measured via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently assess no meaningful chance of the market resolving to any specific temperature range, though the settlement window remains two years away and actual August conditions remain entirely unknown at this distance.

Amsterdam's August temperatures typically range from 12 to 22 degrees Celsius, with historical highs occasionally reaching 25–28 degrees on warm days. The 1901–2023 climate record shows August 15 specifically has produced temperatures between 14 and 27 degrees, with most years clustering in the 18–23 range. The current zero probability across all ranges suggests either incomplete market seeding or uncertainty about which temperature bands the market offers as resolution options. Comparable European weather markets at this temporal distance usually show distributed probabilities across multiple outcomes rather than complete concentration at zero.

Traders should monitor the market's available temperature brackets once fully populated, as the specific range definitions will determine whether current odds reflect genuine forecasting consensus or merely incomplete market setup. European summer weather patterns, influenced by Atlantic pressure systems and occasional heat domes, remain highly variable at a two-year horizon. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than alternative sources creates a single point of reference that eliminates disputes over measurement location or timing, though traders should verify Schiphol Station maintains continuous reporting through August 2026.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.