Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question centres on whether Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia at any point before 30 June 2026. The resolution criteria encompass resignation, removal, detention, or any circumstance preventing him from fulfilling presidential duties. An announcement of either event triggers immediate resolution to "Yes", regardless of implementation timing. The 2% implied probability reflects market assessment of this outcome within an 18-month window.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for assessing removal of a sitting Russian president. No Russian or Soviet leader has been forcibly removed from office through constitutional means since the Soviet collapse. The 1991 transition saw Boris Yeltsin consolidate power rather than face removal, whilst subsequent successions—Yeltsin to Putin in 1999, Putin's 2008 transition to prime minister—occurred through planned constitutional mechanisms rather than unexpected displacement. Illness or incapacity has not triggered presidential succession in the modern Russian state. International prediction markets and specialist geopolitical analysts assign probabilities ranging from 1–5% to such scenarios, with divergence reflecting differing assessments of internal Russian political stability and potential health-related factors.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from Russian state media regarding Putin's health or public appearances, particularly following any extended absences from official duties. Developments in Russia's military command structure, factional tensions within the security apparatus, or significant economic deterioration could theoretically alter baseline probabilities. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, capturing any potential instability linked to Russia's ongoing military commitments or domestic political shifts, though current market pricing suggests participants view such outcomes as remote within this timeframe.

Methodology

This page reviews Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.