Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 31 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Bao'an International Airport Station. The settlement relies on historical data from Weather Underground, with resolution tied to the single highest temperature recorded across all daylight and overnight hours that date.

Late May in Shenzhen typically sits within the pre-monsoon transition period, with daily highs ranging between 28–33°C based on thirty-year climate records. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to materialise or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification on specific temperature thresholds. Comparable May 31st observations from prior years show considerable variance: 2023 recorded 32.2°C, whilst 2022 peaked at 29.1°C, indicating a 3°C spread that would materially shift which bracket resolves. Historical volatility in late-spring Shenzhen temperatures—driven by subtropical pressure systems and occasional early-season rainfall—means single-day forecasts carry genuine uncertainty even with modern modelling.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's May forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity tracking towards the South China coast, which could suppress temperatures significantly. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 31 May, creating a hard deadline for final observations. Current market structure appears incomplete without visible range options, limiting meaningful position-taking until the full contract specifications appear. Any significant weather pattern shifts in April or early May would warrant reassessment of historical baseline expectations.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.