Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds being exceeded during the preceding 24 hours. Current crowd pricing reflects 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which range will resolve or a technical issue with market initialisation.

Historical June temperatures in Shanghai cluster between 28–34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent warm conditions in mid-June, though variability exists year-to-year depending on monsoon patterns and atmospheric pressure systems. Comparable markets on Chinese weather stations typically see meaningful trading activity once seasonal patterns become clearer; the absence of any probability mass here warrants scrutiny of whether the market has attracted sufficient liquidity or whether traders are awaiting updated meteorological forecasts before committing capital.

The China Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts routinely, with updates typically issued between 8–14 days ahead of the target date. Traders should monitor releases from late May and early June for any signals of anomalous heat or cooler-than-average conditions. El Niño or La Niña phases can influence East Asian summer weather; current oceanic indices and any official NOAA updates on tropical Pacific conditions will inform medium-range expectations. Wunderground's historical data for Shanghai shows consistent measurement protocols, making resolution straightforward once the date passes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.