Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, which archives daily maximum temperatures for this major aviation weather station in the Île-de-France region. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range brackets available or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast opportunity.

Paris's late May temperatures typically range between 18°C and 26°C, with historical records showing occasional peaks above 28°C during warm spells. The 31-year climate normal for maximum temperature on this date sits around 22°C. Comparable May-end forecasts from other European weather prediction markets have shown meaningful divergence between sportsbook-style weather derivatives (which price temperature bands as financial instruments) and raw crowd probabilities, particularly when ranges are narrowly defined. The absence of any meaningful implied probability here suggests either incomplete market seeding or that traders are awaiting clearer range definitions before committing capital.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal outlook, updated fortnightly, which will provide guidance on whether late May 2026 favours above or below-normal temperatures across northern France. Atmospheric oscillation patterns—particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation phase in spring—historically influence late-May weather persistence in the Paris region. No scheduled weather events or infrastructure changes at Le Bourget are anticipated to affect measurement consistency by the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.