Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate database. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though the official reading typically becomes available within hours of the observation period ending. Resolution will depend on the Observatory's standard methodology, which measures the highest temperature reached during a calendar day in degrees Celsius to one decimal place.

June in Hong Kong sits within the early monsoon season, characterised by warm, humid conditions with occasional heavy rainfall. Historical data shows June daily maxima in Hong Kong typically range between 28°C and 33°C, with the long-term average around 31°C. The 0% crowd probability currently implied across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending meteorological consensus. Comparable June markets in previous years have seen temperature ranges cluster around the 30–32°C band, reflecting the consistency of early-summer conditions in the territory.

The key catalyst for this market will be the release of seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological services in late May 2026. Tropical cyclone activity, whilst less frequent in early June than later in the season, remains a potential wildcard that could suppress temperatures significantly. Traders should monitor the Observatory's monthly outlooks and any alerts regarding unusual pressure systems developing across the South China Sea in the weeks preceding the settlement date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.