Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 17 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that no specific temperature range will be selected, though this represents an extreme position given that a measurable high will almost certainly occur on that date.

Chengdu's August climate provides a reliable historical baseline. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with daily highs typically ranging from 28–35°C. Weather Underground data from previous years shows consistent recording of temperatures in this band during the settlement period. The current zero probability suggests either market dysfunction or traders anticipating resolution complications rather than genuine uncertainty about whether a temperature will be recorded. Comparable weather markets on established platforms typically show non-zero probabilities for straightforward temperature observations.

Traders should monitor Chengdu's weather patterns from late July onwards, as atmospheric conditions in the weeks preceding mid-August can shift seasonal expectations. Any disruption to Shuangliu Airport's meteorological station operations would affect data availability, though such outages are uncommon at major international airports. The specification requiring Daily Observations table data rather than summary figures creates a technical dependency—traders should verify Weather Underground's historical consistency in populating this particular data source for Chengdu before committing capital. Current odds diverge sharply from the practical certainty that a temperature reading will exist on the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.