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Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Five-platform snapshot of "Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

82-83°F 100% 73°F or below 0% 74-75°F 0% 76-77°F 0% Volume: $80K Liquidity: $188K Closes: 13 Jul 2026
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Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
82-83°F100%
73°F or below0%
74-75°F0%
76-77°F0%
78-79°F0%
80-81°F0%
84-85°F0%
86-87°F0%
88-89°F0%
90-91°F0%
92°F or higher0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Jul '26. The resol…

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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