Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

For the Iranian regime to “fall” by 30 June, the Islamic Republic would need to lose effective control of the state, not merely suffer strikes, leadership losses or a temporary security shock. The current 6% yes price implies a low but non-zero tail risk, while Reuters-style analyst consensus and most conflict reporting still point to continuity: the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council and the IRGC-linked security apparatus remain the core of power. Recent reporting from the Institute for the Study of War says Tehran’s negotiating posture is still being shaped by a view that it can impose terms, despite damage and pressure.

Historically, markets tend to overprice regime collapse after major military shocks and then mean-revert unless there is a clean split inside the coercive machine. Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 were driven by rapid breakdowns in command, external intervention and elite fragmentation; by contrast, sanctions-heavy pressure on Iran in 2009, 2019 and earlier protest waves did not produce a state collapse. That is the key comparison for this contract: the threshold is not unrest, nor even strikes on senior figures, but a sustained loss of governing authority across Iran’s institutions and territory.

Traders should watch for any formal succession or emergency arrangements, signs of elite fragmentation inside the IRGC, and whether the security services remain able to suppress protests and maintain communications. ISW has warned that Iran’s national security body is preparing for a protest wave as economic deterioration and internet restrictions intensify, which matters because a collapse scenario would likely depend on mass unrest combining with elite defections. Absent that, the market is effectively betting that the regime survives the current war and the June deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.