World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world driver here is simple: every penalty taken in open play at the 2026 FIFA World Cup that is saved or missed counts, while shoot-out attempts do not. That makes the contract less about famous shoot-out drama and more about how often referees award spot-kicks in regular, stoppage or extra time across the expanded tournament format.

The historical frame points to a fairly low baseline. World Cup penalty misses are usually sparse, and individual records are small: Guinness lists Asamoah Gyan’s two missed tournament penalties as the most by one player, excluding shoot-outs, while FIFA notes only a limited group of nations have even reached three or more scored World Cup penalties overall[6][7]. Recent media coverage around the tournament has highlighted early 2026 penalties and the fact that top takers such as Lionel Messi and Harry Kane already sit on just six World Cup penalties each, with only a handful of misses or saves between them[5]. Against that backdrop, a **4% YES** crowd price implies the market expects a relatively high threshold for total misses, and that estimate sits well below the kind of long-shot pricing usually associated with a truly exceptional penalty-heavy tournament.

For traders, the main catalysts are fixture flow, refereeing trends and any tactical shift towards box-entry football that increases spot-kick volume. The key dependencies are the number of matches completed, whether the knockout stages produce more extra-time periods, and whether official match reports keep recording saved or missed penalties in normal play; if the tournament is shortened, only completed-match data counts. In cross-platform terms, the most important comparison is between this low crowd-implied probability and any sportsbook total that may be posted on the same contract: a meaningful gap would suggest either the market is pricing in a scarce-event outcome, or the bookmaker side is incorporating a more aggressive penalty-rate assumption than prediction-market traders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.