Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's minimum temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though actual resolution depends on the Observatory's publication schedule for finalised readings. Temperature will be measured to one decimal place in Celsius, determining which range bracket the market resolves to.

July represents Hong Kong's peak summer season, with historical daily minima typically ranging between 25–27°C during this period. The Observatory's 30-year climate normals show July absolute minima clustered in the 24–26°C band, though extreme outliers have occasionally dipped lower during unusual weather patterns. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing near-certainty into one specific temperature range, likely reflecting confidence in seasonal norms rather than genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Without comparable sportsbook lines or published analyst consensus on this specific date, the market's probability distribution remains opaque to cross-platform comparison.

Tropical cyclone activity represents the primary catalyst affecting July temperatures in Hong Kong. The Observatory issues typhoon warnings and forecasts that could materially shift minimum temperatures if a system approaches during the settlement window. Monsoon patterns and upper-atmospheric conditions in early July will also influence daily minima. Traders should monitor the Observatory's 7-day forecast and any tropical cyclone advisories issued in the week preceding 13 July, as these represent the most concrete signals available before the actual reading is recorded.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.