Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min” reading, published only after the day’s data are completed and verified. With the market currently pricing **0% YES**, the crowd is effectively saying there is no realistic chance the final minimum lands inside the contract’s target range.

That scepticism is consistent with Hong Kong’s August climate, where the Observatory’s normals put the mean minimum for 10 August at **26.3°C** and average August minima elsewhere cluster around the high 20s Celsius, with very warm, humid nights common. Recent comparable history also points to a tight band rather than an outlier: 2024 was an exceptionally hot August, yet the Observatory still reported a monthly mean daily minimum of **27.7°C**; third-party history pages likewise show typical August lows around **27–28°C**. Against that backdrop, the contract looks like a clean read on whether the day cools materially below seasonal norms rather than a broad summer-weather wager.

For traders, the key catalyst is not a forecast update so much as the Observatory’s final daily extract, because settlement depends on the published one-decimal Celsius minimum rather than intraday conditions. The live market can move sharply only if weather patterns change the overnight floor: cloud cover, showers, and onshore flow can limit nocturnal cooling, while clearer, drier air can lower the minimum. At the time of writing, Hong Kong forecast services point to hot, humid conditions with only limited precipitation risk, which supports the market’s near-zero YES pricing, though it does not change the fact that final resolution must wait for the Observatory’s published record.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.