Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome for this market. Wuhan's summer climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity; July is consistently the hottest month, with historical daily highs regularly exceeding 35°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect conditions substantially below seasonal norms—a positioning worth scrutinising against climatological precedent.

Wuhan's July temperatures have shown remarkable consistency over recent decades. Between 2015 and 2024, the city recorded July daily highs ranging from 28°C to 40°C, with the majority of days clustering between 34°C and 38°C. The 2022 heatwave pushed temperatures above 40°C on multiple occasions, whilst cooler years still produced peaks near 33°C. Current crowd pricing at 0% suggests either extreme scepticism about temperature thresholds in the available resolution bands or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline. Cross-platform comparison data from weather-focused prediction markets and meteorological consensus forecasts would clarify whether this reflects genuine disagreement or simply low liquidity.

The primary catalyst remains the seasonal weather pattern itself. No scheduled infrastructure changes or measurement-station relocations are anticipated before the settlement date. Traders should monitor late-June atmospheric conditions and any emerging monsoon patterns that could suppress July temperatures below historical norms, though such deviations remain statistically uncommon. Resolution will depend entirely on Wunderground's recorded data from the airport station, making measurement methodology and sensor calibration the only operational variables.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.