Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport on 20 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the market's current state ahead of the August 2026 settlement window, though this represents a snapshot rather than a forecast consensus.

Wuhan's August climate presents a consistent baseline for contextualising this contract. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that Wuhan regularly records temperatures between 32–38°C during mid-August, with extremes occasionally reaching 40°C or above during heat waves. The city experienced a peak of 40.9°C in August 2013 and 41.3°C in August 2017, establishing that temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius bracket are neither exceptional nor implausible for this period. The settlement window's placement at 12:00 UTC on 20 August aligns with afternoon peak temperatures, when daily highs typically manifest.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the China National Meteorological Center in the weeks preceding August 2026, particularly any advisories regarding heat waves or anomalous pressure systems affecting central China. El Niño or La Niña conditions, typically announced by the World Meteorological Organization, can influence East Asian summer temperatures materially. The specificity of the resolution source—Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Wuhan Tianhe station—means that instrumental calibration or station maintenance schedules could theoretically affect recorded values, though such disruptions are rare at major international airports.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.