Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Wellington International Airport's weather station will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. The settlement hinges on identifying which temperature band captures that highest reading, with resolution sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station and date.

Wellington's winter climate in early June typically produces daily maxima between 11°C and 14°C, though variability is substantial. Historical records show that on comparable dates in previous years, the airport station has recorded highs ranging from 8°C to 17°C depending on synoptic patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the available temperature bands or treating this as a calibration exercise given the settlement window extends to midday on the event date itself. Comparable weather markets on prediction platforms show modest engagement for Southern Hemisphere winter forecasts, with implied probabilities generally reflecting seasonal norms rather than extreme confidence in any single outcome.

The critical variable for this market is the passage of weather systems across the lower North Island in the days preceding 4 June 2026. The New Zealand MetService issues five-day outlooks approximately one week in advance, which will clarify whether anticyclonic or frontal conditions dominate that period. Traders should monitor whether any significant low-pressure systems are forecast to approach Wellington, as these typically suppress daytime maxima. The settlement window's noon cutoff means the final temperature reading will be confirmed shortly after market closure, leaving minimal room for late-market repricing based on intraday observations.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.